Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Different Interpretations of the Same Climate Data

      Hyperbole and obfuscation are terms that routinely describe the Climate Change Debate.  It is hard to dig through all the BS and politicizing associated with this reporting. The same information is often used to substantiate diametrically opposing positions.  An example, of this dilemma follows.
     William Bigelow reported on Jan 29, 2013 in U.N. Report Says Global Warming Predictions Overstated Problem  that
The draft of a U.N. climate change report due to be published in 2014 has been leaked, and it shows that the four temperature models the U.N. used from 1990 to 2012 vastly overestimated the warming of the earth during that time.
He added that Roy Spencer, a climatologist at the University of Alabama at Huntsville, said
Temperatures have not risen nearly as much as almost all of the climate models predicted. Their predictions have largely failed, four times in a row... what that means is that it's time for them to re-evaluate. It is evidence that CO2 is not nearly as strong a climate driver as the IPCC has been assuming.
That post follows a Jan 28th report on Fox News Draft UN climate report shows 20 years of overestimated global warming, skeptics warn, which presents a graph to demonstrate the issue.

However, a Nov 17, 2012 research paper, Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011 looking at the identical data (also shows a graph of temperature anomalies) reports
We analyse (sic) global temperature . . . for the past few decades and compare them to projections published in the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that global temperature continues to increase in good agreement with the best estimates of the IPCC, especially if we account for the effects of short-term variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, volcanic activity and solar variability.
Lastly, on Dec 15, 2012 ABC News offers a different perspective of the "leaked" report, IPCC draft climate report leaked by sceptics
A draft of the next report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been leaked on climate sceptic websites. The 14-chapter draft report was posted on a US-based blog site called stopgreensuicide and then posted on another site critical of climate science.
The leaker and other climate sceptics have isolated one section of the draft to suggest that cosmic rays such as those of the Sun may have a greater influence on warming than had been claimed.
In our opinion one should not give credibility to any DRAFT reports, stolen or otherwise.  They are still subject to review and redaction.  That is why they a called DRAFTS.

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