No Compelling Evidence That Recent Sea Level Rise Is Abnormal

      Mean global sea level has risen at a slow creep for more than 150 years; since 1900, global mean sea level has risen about 7-8 inches. The implications of the highest values of projected sea-level rise under future climate change scenarios are profound, with far reaching socioeconomic and environmental implications. However, these projections are regarded as deeply uncertain and the highest of these projections strain credulity.
      Recent research has concluded that there is no consistent or compelling evidence that recent rates of sea level rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records back to the 19th century that are available across Europe.
        In many of the most vulnerable coastal locations, the dominant causes of local sea level rise are natural oceanic and geologic processes and land use practices. Land use and engineering in the major coastal cities have brought on many of the worst problems, notably land-filling in coastal wetland areas and groundwater extraction.
       Local sea level in many regions will continue to rise in the 21st century – independent of global climate change. The appropriate range of sea level rise scenarios to consider for 2100 is 8 inches to 5 feet. 
      Values of sea level rise are contingent on the climate models predicting the correct amount of temperature increase. However, there are numerous reasons to think that the climate models are predicting too much warming for the 21st century

https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2018/11/special-report-sea-level-rise3.pdf 

Website Breach Info

      "Have I been Pwnd" website came about after what was, at the time, the largest ever single breach of customer accounts — Adobe. The website creator often did post-breach analysis of user credentials and kept finding the same accounts exposed over and over again, often with the same passwords which then put the victims at further risk of their other accounts being compromised.
      His FAQs page goes into a lot more detail, but all the data on this site comes from "breaches" where data is exposed to persons that should not have been able to view it.

Identity Leak Detector

      Everyday personal data is stolen in criminal cyber attacks. A large part of the stolen information is subsequently made public on Internet databases, where it serves as the starting point for other illegal activities.

      With the HPI Identity Leak Checker, it is possible to check whether your email address, along with other personal data (e.g. telephone number, date of birth or address), has been made public on the Internet where it can be misused for malicious purposes.

CONSUMER and CYBERCRIME NEWS

Technology has hidden side effects -- BobSullivan.net reveals them and provides interesting commentary about:

• Cybersecurity, computer hacking, corporate espionage, viruses, etc. He co-hosts the podcast Breach, about history’s biggest hacks. It has spent time in the top 100 podcasts.
• Behavioral economics, particularly how cognitive biases “trick” consumers into making bad choices. He writes “nuggets” for PeopleScience.com; this is also the subject of his book The Plateau Effect .
• Identity theft and fraud (He wrote one of the first books on ID theft, Your Evil Twin)
• Consumer protection and ‘gotchas’ (Gotcha Capitalism and Stop Getting Ripped off were both NYTimes best-sellers
• America’s ‘Restless’ problem, including Overwork and other unintended consequences of technology
• Voting integrity
• Elder fraud
• Ageism
• Child online safety

How Can Global Warming Accelerate if Effect of CO2 is Logarithmic?

      If scientists agree that the greenhouse effect is approximately logarithmic — which means that as we add more CO₂ to the atmosphere, the effect of extra CO₂ decreases, why does the IPCC projects that if we don't take steps to reduce our emissions, global warming won't just get worse, it will speed up?

      The answer can be found in a 28 March 28, 2018 post by DPiepgrass at 
https://skepticalscience.com/why-global-warming-can-accelerate.html

Efficacy of Intercessonary Prayer

      It is common practice at most churches to request prayers or to have prayer services for someone sick. But who does these prayers help?  Numerous attempts to prove scinetificallyhave all failed to demonstrate any benefit to the ill, including a study funded by the John Templeton Foundation.

      In 1982, Randolph Byrd, a cardiologist at the San Francisco General Medical Center and born-again Christian believed that he could put faith-based prayer on a solid scientific foundation by implementing rigorous study using a double-blind randomized clinical trial. He randomly engaged four-hundred cardiac patients to prayed-for and not-prayed-for by Christian intercessors.  He found highly questionable and virtually little benefit to prayer.

      Subsequently, four new major investigations incorporating the same procedures Byrd had followed were carried out at other medical centers: William Harris, Saint Luke’s Hospital (1999); Jennifer Aviles, Mayo Clinic (2001); Mitchell Krucoff, Duke University Medical Center (2005); and Herbert Benson, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (2006). Their results were as follows:

Various broader meta-studies of the literature in the field have been performed showing evidence only for no effect or a potentially small effect (maybe depending on one's bias). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Studies_on_intercessory_prayer 

So what explanation do those who uphold the value of prayer offer?

• The research is premised on a misconception of how God responds to prayer.
• God is outside the domain of science and therefore is not amenable to experimental evaluation.
• It is not possible to randomize God or truly understand his will.
• Research can neither prove nor disprove the validity of divine intervention.
• Because God already knows who needs healing, prayer is superfluous.
• It is a corruption of faith, if not willful blasphemy or sacrilege, to test God.

For additional information read:
https://secularhumanism.org/2018/12/have-christians-accepted-the-scientific-conclusion-that-god-does-not-answer-intercessory-prayer/

Not All News Is Fake

I just double checked a claim made in today’s Congressional Hearings with Google Exec.

A woman said she googled IDIOT and got pictures of Trump.   So did I!

https://www.google.com/search?q=IDIOT&client=firefox-b-1-ab&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwii4byOiZnfAhWCg-AKHZF9DHgQ_AUIDigB&biw=1156&bih=651

Media Bias

If you think your news source sounds a little biased, it probably is.  That was the conclusion we came you while reading the magazine "The Week."  We were impressed by their practice of trying to share both sides of a contenious topic, but in our most recent reading (December 7, 2018), it seemed the column space (i.e. written acreage) was heavier on the more liberal position. It was time to check the Media-Bias-Chart.

The Version 4.0, updated in August 2018 is found at https://www.adfontesmedia.com/

Sure enough the authors of the chart consider The Week as skewing LEFT.  Could be our Confirmation Bias, but we don't think so.  However, the magazine is included in their YELLOW box, which they believe report the news fairly.

More important our the source in the ORANGE and RED boxes.  They provide either EXTREME or UNFAIR versions of the news or in the RED case PROVIDE NONSENSE DAMAGING TO PUBLIC DISCOURSE.

Again, we couldn't argue with the authors evaluations, especially with FOX NEWS which is popular in Tennessee

Timely TED Talk on Confirmation Bias

Only if you are truly open to the possibility of being wrong can you ever learn, says researcher Alex Edmans. In an insightful talk, he explores how confirmation bias -- the tendency to only accept information that supports your personal beliefs -- can lead you astray on social media, in politics and beyond, and offers three practical tools for finding evidence you can actually trust.
https://www.ted.com/talks/alex_edmans_what_to_trust_in_a_post_truth_world?utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare 

This TED-talk-find was an excellent treatise on Critical Thinking.  I wish everyone would listen to this TED talk as many times as necessary for the message to really sink in.  It is applicable in all aspects of life where we have soft data such in politics, economics, medicine, religion, etc. 

Tornadoes

John Oliver Takes Down the Religious Criminals

Bush, TARP, and Federal Debt

Fifteen years ago, I was the webmaster for a political debate group. It was formed almost immediately after GW Bush invaded Iraq.  I thought that was an idiotic decision and politically motivated.  I was interested in what others thought.

Nearly all my friends and family were Republicans; so, you can tell what feedback I received.  However, I continued to vote Republican assuming it must have been me who got this whole invasion thing wrong.

In 2008 it was another Presidential election and I was ready to vote for McCain.  I liked that the man voted his conscience rather than the Party line.  However, when he picked Palin as Vice-President, I started to question his competence.  I couldn’t see risking the country if, for some reason, she should become President.

Death of Local News

The September 7th issue of THE WEEK had an article about the death of local news and the serious impact that has on the fight against corruption.  
http://theweek.com/articles/793309/death-local-news  

It asks the question, "Do we still meed local news?" It answers, "Only if things like schools, taxes, infrastructure, and government accountability matter to you." 

In the absence of local news people are relegated to getting their information on Google, Facebook, or Twitter.  Everyone knows how accurate those sources are and how insulated they are from fake stories. 

Even worse people trust their tribal bards without challenge or fact checking.  That only increases polarization of opinions and offers credibility to the loudest voices, the fringes.  People stop listening to and learning from others who may have contrary opinions.

The problem has only been exacerbating when the most vocal are the fringe elements and confabulators that populate high levels of authority that the average person used to be able to trust.

What to do if you see fake news on Facebook

What to do if you see fake news on Facebook

Plus, what to know about the Iranian influence report.

By Rob Verger August 23, 2018

      Facebook and the intelligence division of a cybersecurity company called FireEye have pointed their fingers at a new global actor involved in the spread of what they’re calling “inauthentic” behavior or news: Iran.
      In fact, Facebook announced this week that they have shuttered more than 600 accounts, pages, and groups that the social network says are tied to Iran, meaning that the Middle Eastern country joins Russia as implicated in the spread of false news and manipulation via American social media. It’s an issue that will only gain in importance the closer the midterm elections become, and while it seems like an uphill battle, there are still steps you can take.
      This is what to do if you come across posts or accounts you think may not be what they seem to be, as well as what to know about the latest report.

What can you do? 

WIRED bias

I like the daily updates that I receive from WIRED Magazine.  However, the 8/2/18 article Crying 'Pedophile' Is the Oldest Propaganda Trick in the Book had me questioning what I was reading. https://www.wired.com/story/crying-pedophile-is-the-oldest-propaganda-trick-in-the-book/?CNDID=48648177&mbid=nl_080118_daily_list1_p3 

It opens with

Starving-Polar-Bear Photographer Recalls What Went Wrong

One year after Cristina Mittermeier took that gut-wrenching polar bear image later, she explains what she and her team were trying to accomplish. This story appeared in the August 2018 issue of National Geographic magazine.

Climate change kills slowly and by proxy: through fire, drought, cold, and starvation. The connection between an individual animal’s death and climate change is rarely clear—even when an animal is as emaciated as this polar bear.

Photographer Paul Nicklen and Cristina Mittermeier were on a mission to capture images that communicate the urgency of climate change. She admits they were naive. The polar bear picture went viral—and people took it literally.

When Paul posted the video on Instagram, he wrote, “This is what starvation looks like.”  But he did not say that this particular bear was killed by climate change.

National Geographic picked up the video and added subtitles. It became the most viewed video on National Geographic’s website—ever. News organizations around the world ran stories about it; social media exploded with opinions about it. Cristina estimated that an astonishing 2.5 billion people were reached. But they lost control of the narrative.

The first line of the National Geographic video said, “This is what climate change looks like”—with “climate change” highlighted in the brand’s distinctive yellow. In retrospect, National Geographic went too far with the caption.

Perhaps we made a mistake in not telling the full story—that we were looking for a picture that foretold the future and that we didn’t know what had happened to this particular polar bear. I can’t say that this bear was starving because of climate change.

Cristina Mittermeier is a contributing photographer, speaker, and explorer for National Geographic. She is the co-founder, executive director, and vision lead of SeaLegacy, a nonprofit organization working to protect the oceans. 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2018/08/explore-through-the-lens-starving-polar-bear-photo/ 

Shadow Politics: Meet the Digital Sleuth Exposing Fake News

      You all may not want to read this whole WIRED article (see the link at the end of this post).  I would like to post it on my blog, but it is copyrighted.  It illustrates how pervasive and dangerous the Russian interference and hate groups have become.  Today’s TV Press Shows also reminded me how naïve (or incompetent) many political mouth pieces are as they spread misinformation.  A Republican politician appeared on Face the Nation and claimed Russian infiltration in our political system did not result in one fake vote.  I thought “he can’t be that stupid, but then he is taking his lead from the President.”

Hypocrisy vs Reality and Jerry Brown

Remember this
Jerry Brown in China with a climate message to the world: Don't follow America's lead http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-brown-china-20170607-story.html#
Is this guy that clueless or just stupid?

Miracle Cancer Cure

Center for Inquiry Sues CVS for Fraud

      The Center for Inquiry has filed a lawsuit in the District of Columbia on behalf of the general public against drug retailer CVS for consumer fraud over its sale and marketing of useless homeopathic medicines. CFI, an organization advancing reason and science, accused the country’s largest drug retailer of deceiving consumers through its misrepresentation of homeopathy’s safety and effectiveness, wasting customers’ money and putting their health at risk.

Click here to access the official complaint (PDF).

     Homeopathy is an 18th-century pseudoscience premised on the absurd, unscientific notion that a substance that causes a particular symptom is what should be ingested to alleviate it. Dangerous substances are diluted to the point that no trace of the active ingredient remains, but its alleged effectiveness rests on the nonsensical claim that water molecules have “memories” of the original substance. Homeopathic treatments have no effect whatsoever beyond that of a placebo.

Check this out at https://centerforinquiry.org/press_releases/cfi-sues-cvs/