Timely TED Talk on Confirmation Bias

Only if you are truly open to the possibility of being wrong can you ever learn, says researcher Alex Edmans. In an insightful talk, he explores how confirmation bias -- the tendency to only accept information that supports your personal beliefs -- can lead you astray on social media, in politics and beyond, and offers three practical tools for finding evidence you can actually trust.
https://www.ted.com/talks/alex_edmans_what_to_trust_in_a_post_truth_world?utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare 

This TED-talk-find was an excellent treatise on Critical Thinking.  I wish everyone would listen to this TED talk as many times as necessary for the message to really sink in.  It is applicable in all aspects of life where we have soft data such in politics, economics, medicine, religion, etc. 

Even though I have been promoting critical thought on my blog for the last decade, I still found a lesson in this TED talk and listened to it several times.  It is remarkably easy to let confirmation bias prioritize one’s thinking when one feels strongly about a position and to ignore or not seek potential contradictory and credible evidence.  That is why I am looking forward to our Nerd Nite sessions on a Skeptical Look at History.

This TED talk is timely because the topic of Fake News has been so prominent.  Our confabulator-in-chief has used his bully pulpit to keep it front and center.  The interesting thing about Trump is, while he complains, sometimes with justification, about other’s transgressions, he is the greatest Presidental source of fake news in history. 

Jason Sattler in USA TODAY has analyzed the situation as “The president of the United States is a liar. There’s no question about that. The question is, are you going to help him spread his lies?  Trump doesn't lie to be believed, he lies to be repeated. Even fierce opponents can be unwitting viral marketers for his lies.”.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/09/10/donald-trump-liar-dont-help-his-lies-go-viral-column/1215197002/

The FACEBOOK situation has also made this TED talk timely.  But just like the case of Trump, FACEBOOK is not the cause, it is just the most recent manifestation.  Throughout history, bards have stood around campfires telling of the great exploits of their king, of their god, of their heroes in the form of fake news. 

The common denominator in all these cases are the people who swallow and repeat the stories without nary a critical consideration.  The impact is quite evident as Mark Twain has been accused to saying,  A lie can travel halfway round the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.  (But that thought did not originate with him. On April 1, 1855, preacher Charles Haddon Spurgeon attributed it to an old proverb in a sermon. He said, "A lie will go round the world while truth is pulling its boots on." Even earlier, in 1710 Jonathan Swift wrote on the same topic in The Examiner.)

A very rare few people double-check what they hear or read if it matches their vision of the world.  But almost everyone forwards the claim with light-speed.  Heaven forbid the lonely individual who gets in the way and decides to examine and report back about a claim’s veracity. He or she is accused of having opposite beliefs, of having no sense of humor, or of being a curmudgeon.   The problem is neither Trump nor FACEBOOK.  The finger of guilt is pointing in the wrong direction.  Also, a very few would appreciate the message in this TED talk to listen to it more than once.

Marvin Kalb’s in his book “Enemy of the People,” reported on the danger of populist confirmation bias.  He draws parallels between Trump’s America and Nazi Germany and Stalin’s Russia.  Whereas most people appreciate the danger of these historical events, one wonders how many Republicans stop to reflect as Trump vehemently disrespects institutions and standards Americans once trusted. It appears that for most of them, “the end justifies the means.”

But consider the collateral damage of, “what comes after Trump?”  Unfortunately, in politics the baseline never resets.  The Kavanaugh hearing demonstrates how this shifted baseline can motivate justification for taking the misinformation tactic just one step further. “The end justifies the means.”

The German theologian and Lutheran pastor Friedrich Gustav Emil Martin Niemöller once stated about that time in history most people accept as evil,

"First they came for the Communists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Communist," and concludes, "Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me."