Are these extreme events more extreme than studies had predicted based on current levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases? Is climate change unfolding faster than scientists had expected blistering heat waves, scorching crops, fueling wildfires, buckling roads, mega-droughts, and thousands of deaths? There are two distinct questions.
Regional computer models that simulate how the planet responds to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere has been reasonably accurate. But the recent pileup of very hot heat waves may be underestimating the frequency and intensity of such events.
Past forecasts since 1970 about global warming has predicted higher averaged temperatures with a hotter baseline for summer temperatures with more frequent, more extreme, and more lasting heat waves. Even worse, the current researchers are concerned that the latest generation of models are collectively running too hot, potentially projecting excessive levels of warming from increased carbon dioxide concentrations.
Certain real-world events have happened faster or to greater degrees in recent decades than predicted by past or current models, including the loss of Arctic sea ice, the amount of land burned by wildfires, and the rapid increase in extreme temperature events in Europe.
Friederike Otto, co-lead of World Weather Attribution, said, “Heat waves that used to be rare are now common; heat waves that used to be impossible are now happeningClimate models were not designed to predict regional extreme events. They were to simulate average temperature changes across long time periods and wide areas.
Computer simulations are limited by understanding of the complex interactions among earth systems; computational power; and the cost of running the models numerous times to explore the spectrum of possibilities. As the technology, techniques, and data sharing and get better scientists to run many more novel experiments.
They can’t confirm whether some of the weather events we’re experiencing such the 2022 European events are outside the bounds of model findings supposed to be very rare once in every 100 years under current climate conditions. Are they dramatic outliers or early warning signals that produce more frequent hotter events?
“There’s a lot of uncertainty when it comes to these unprecedented and record-shattering events,” said Flavio Lehner, assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences at Cornell, in an email. “You can’t, with the highest confidence, say the models get this or don’t get this,” when it comes to certain extreme events.
A variety of researchers are exploring the degree to which certain forces could be exacerbating heat waves, and whether they are accurately represented in the models today, such as the drying out of soil and plants in some regions. They can accelerate warming during heat waves, because energy that would otherwise go into evaporating water goes to work warming the air.
The climate change itself is increasing the persistence of certain atmospheric patterns that are clearly fueling heat waves. That includes the buildup of high-pressure ridges that push warm air downward, creating so-called heat domes that hover over and bake large regions.
Chris Field, director of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment asserted in a letter responding to the New York Times’ that few thought climate change would arrive so quickly. despite clear warnings consistently informing the public. Their voices struggled in an atmosphere filled with false charges of alarmism and political motivation.
No comments:
Post a Comment